Coalition win unlikely to change economy

THE economy will change little, regardless of which party wins the election, HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham predicts.

Despite different policy approaches, most notably on the issues of the carbon and mining taxes, Mr Bloxham said the release of the Coalition's costings late on Thursday had revealed "little difference" in the major parties' respective budget bottom lines.

He said both sides broadly agreed on fundamental economic issues, including a floating currency, independent central bank, free flow of capital and trade and a medium-term fiscal balance.

"Whoever wins, there are unlikely to be any major changes to the macroeconomic framework, so we foresee limited implications for the growth outlook," Mr Bloxham said.

Both sides were planning to return the budget to surplus over the medium term, he said, although neither party had announced major changes to tax or expenditure to address the structural element of Australia's deficit.

Mr Bloxham, who conceded all signs were pointing to a Coalition victory, said the political volatility of the past three years combined with a long lead-in to the election had potentially held back business confidence in recent months.

"As such, whoever wins, a reduction in tax and regulatory uncertainty post-election, could provide a boost to confidence," he said.


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